All is not well in Oscarland. There is an intense debate brewing among top pundits regarding the Coen brothers' No Country for Old Men (Miramax) and whether or not it should/will be nominated for Best Picture. Among those strongly in the film's corner are Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), Jeff Wells (Hollywood Elsewhere), and Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), the latter of whom believes it will actually win Best Picture. Then there is the other camp that feels it isn't going anywhere as far as a Best Picture nomination, which includes Tom O'Neil (The Envelope), Kris Tapley (Variety), and myself.
This weekend, several of the aforementioned pundits made their cases for or against No Country: Tom argues people are reading too much into the strong critical response to the film, which is no guarantee of a nomination (think Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, etc.), and Kris has dropped it from his Best Picture projections (at least for the time being, he cautions) for similar reasons. Sasha, meanwhile, thinks they're both wrong—"Academy voters may have their biases, but they are not stupid," she argues in a rebuttal to Tom's piece on her site, which has featured a constant stream of pro-No Country material for a few weeks now. "It's as obvious as can be," she insists, that No Country will win it all.
There are elements of No Country that are unquestionably brilliant, but its advocates have to think about a few things:
- Is it a little overlong?
- Does it offer any message of real importance?
- Does it leave you feeling good about humanity?
- Does it offer any real sense of resolution?
- Is it too violent?
- Has the Academy ever honored westerns that don't feature a grand, sweeping message on an epic scale (Dances with Wolves) or some major star wattage (Unforgiven)?
These are things that will run through voters minds, consciously or subconsciously, when they evaluate a film. Sure, they look the other way and make exceptions by nominating films that violate some of these 'rules' some of the time, but never all of them.
Personally, I think it is conceivable that No Country will get nominated for Best Picture, but unlikely. It is more of a critics movie than a populist movie, and we should have learned in recent years that when current Academy members sit down in private to fill to out their ballots, they vote for the films and people who touched their hearts, not necessarily who they're 'supposed' to according to the critical consensus. How else can we explain the wins of Crash, Eminem, Adrien Brody, Three Six Mafia, The Departed, Alan Arkin, etc., which in past years would have been unimaginable?
My hunch is that when all is said and done, No Country will have won Best Supporting Actor (thanks to Javier Bardem's strong performance and great respect among his peers) and garnered nominations for Best Cinematography, Best Adapted Screenplay, and possibly Best Editing. I think a Best Director nomination for the Coen brothers is possible, but unlikely, partly because it has never helped to have two people up for an award (Little Miss Sunshine), and partly because I think the Academy will not bite on the film for the aforementioned reasons, which will impact the Director race.
People should remember that the Coen brothers' film Fargo (1996) received just as good if not better reviews than No Country; reached a far wider audience than No Country ever will; and was even included on the AFI's list of the 100 Greatest Movies of All-Time the very year the film was released... and still only won two Oscars, Best Actress for Frances McDormand and Best Screenplay for Ethan and Joel. True, it was nominated for Best Director (Joel alone that time) and Best Picture, but failed to win either (losing to Anthony Minghella and his mediocre-at-best film The English Patient), even though it was the weakest year in recent memory.
Add that up with the zero nominations for Blood Simple (1984), zero nominations for Raising Arizona (1987), zero nominations for Miller's Crossing (1990), 3 nominations and zero wins for Barton Fink (1991), zero nominations for The Big Lebowski (1998), 2 nominations and zero wins for O Brother, Where Art Thou? (2000), 1 nomination and zero wins for The Man Who Wasn't There (2001), zero nominations for Intolerable Cruelty (2003), and zero nominations for The Ladykillers (2004), and you have to wonder how much the Academy really goes for the Coen brothers' sorts of films.
To me, the trend is that Coen brothers movies garner, if anything, nominations for Best Cinematography (thanks to Roger Deakins' great work), occasionally for Best Screenplay (which celebrates the quirky and creative), and sporadically for a very memorable supporting performance... which I believe is pretty consistent with my predictions for No Country for Old Men.
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